BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes adjusted his Hyperliquid (HYPE) portfolio on Sunday, September 21.
His latest move prompts questions about his ability to trade with conviction while maintaining bold long-term forecasts.
Arthur Hayes Dumps $5.1 Million HYPE Weeks After Predicting 126x Surge
On September 21, Hayes sold 96,600 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens valued at around $5.1 million. Notably, he held this position for only a month.
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According to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence, the exit netted him roughly $823,000 in profit, or about 19%.
Nevertheless, the sale turned heads because Hayes only recently predicted that HYPE could rally as much as 126x over the coming years.
Speaking at the WebX Summit in Tokyo on August 25, he argued that the token could eventually reach $5,000. The crypto executive cited an explosive expansion in stablecoin supply and retail appetite for leveraged trading.
Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetuals exchange that has processed billions in volume, sits at the heart of Hayes’ thesis.
He has described it as a “casino” designed for retail traders chasing speculative gains in a risk-on environment.
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“This is the system that those in charge have chosen to create and the population is going along with it. I’m going to own the casino where the plebs are going to gamble,” Hayes said in a podcast interview earlier this year,” Hayes said in a recent podcast interview.
For some, his decision to exit HYPE so quickly appears to contradict his moonshot projections.
However, others see it consistent with Hayes’ trader mentality to take short-term profits while still championing the project’s long-term potential.
Did CZ and Aster Burst the Bubble for Hyperliquid Investors?
Meanwhile, others ascribe the move to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who recently promoted Aster. As BeInCrypto reported, the project has presented as an inadvertent market rival for Hyperliquid.
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“Well, he would have been right if CZ hadn’t launched Aster. That was not in the original thesis. When conditions change, traders adapt,” one user remarked.
Beyond the Binance exchange executive, the OKX exchange’s CEO Star Xu also expressed cognizance of Aster as an inadvertent market rival in the perpetuals DEX space. Notably, Xu has since taken down the post.
Notwithstanding, the sale coincided with a dip of almost 5% in HYPE’s price, showing how closely the market tracks his moves.
The drop likely comes as other traders jump ship as well, with Lookonchain flagging a whale withdrawing $122 million worth of HYPE, possibly in readiness to book profits.
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“A whale (likely Techno_Revenant) withdrew all 2.39 million HYPE ($122 million) 4 hours ago and could be selling for profit at any time. On-chain data shows these HYPE were bought 9 months ago by the main wallet 0x316f…e678, which is tagged as Techno_Revenant. His estimated cost basis is likely approximately $12 and is now sitting on over $90 million in unrealized gains,” Lookonchain reported.
Meanwhile, Hayes has not entirely stepped away from DeFi risk. Data from Arkham shows that he accumulated nearly $1 million worth of Ethena’s ENA token in just two days, ahead of Hyperliquid’s critical vote on USDH integration.
Ethena Labs, backed by BlackRock, has processed over $23 billion in redemptions and pledged 95% of USDH revenue back to Hyperliquid.
DeFi researcher Sherif suggests Hayes’ ENA purchases signal a broader strategic bet on the ecosystem’s growth rather than a simple exit from HYPE.
Ultimately, Hayes’ trading activity reflects the duality of a market operator, banking gains today while still selling the vision of tomorrow. It also highlights the impact narrative has on the market.
While HYPE could eventually fulfill Hayes’ 126x prediction, the impact of CZ and Aster cannot be overlooked. Still, Hayes’ move demonstrates a willingness to play both sides of the trade.
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